Thanks for an excellent summary! When I do some back of the envelope-math (assume North America is all regulated, Asia close to 0% regulated) I arrive at the conclusion that around half of the revenue from Europe is from unregulated markets. Given that there are almost no grey markets left in Europe, that would implicate that Evo has a very large share of revenue from black markets in Europe. Would you agree with that analysis and if so, how do you think about that risk?
I agree with your analysis. I think that regulatory cleaning in Europe can bring risks and opportunities to EVO depending how universally they are applied:
Thanks! If I understand your math correctly that assumes that the margin in Europe is the same regardless of whether the market is regulated or not, right? Do you think that is a reasonsble assumption to make?
I'm sure that margins differ greatly between regulated vs. unregulated, market vs market, continent vs continent. I just wanted to come to a rough understanding rather than an exact measurement.
Many thanks for an excellent analysis. I couldn't help but detect an overriding bearish tone in the article. Is this a wait & see what happens over the next 12 months story for you?
Great analysis as always Ali! I am really hopeful for an aggressive share buyback plan announcement Q1 2025 to take advantage of the stock's weakness.
Thanks for an excellent summary! When I do some back of the envelope-math (assume North America is all regulated, Asia close to 0% regulated) I arrive at the conclusion that around half of the revenue from Europe is from unregulated markets. Given that there are almost no grey markets left in Europe, that would implicate that Evo has a very large share of revenue from black markets in Europe. Would you agree with that analysis and if so, how do you think about that risk?
I agree with your analysis. I think that regulatory cleaning in Europe can bring risks and opportunities to EVO depending how universally they are applied:
https://x.com/gnufs/status/1873710200580116927
Thanks! If I understand your math correctly that assumes that the margin in Europe is the same regardless of whether the market is regulated or not, right? Do you think that is a reasonsble assumption to make?
I'm sure that margins differ greatly between regulated vs. unregulated, market vs market, continent vs continent. I just wanted to come to a rough understanding rather than an exact measurement.
Got it! Thanks for your input, it is greatly appreciated :)
I like your analysis on Evolution AB. I'm eager to read your next contents about Evolution, next quaters.
Many thanks for an excellent analysis. I couldn't help but detect an overriding bearish tone in the article. Is this a wait & see what happens over the next 12 months story for you?
I'm just a minority shareholder trying to keep a hopeful yet skeptical view of the company.
It's more like a wait & see over the next decade or two type of plan for me 😅
Excellent analysis as always. Intelligent and so very much appreciated. Thks!
Fantastic analysis! I think right now Evolution is quite cheap for its quality. Gradually buying in each week.