Thanks for the great post. I was wondering what your plan is now. Planning to sell (a part of) your shares? To buy extra shares? Or to hold on to them? In case of the last option, what is the future plan? Is there a list of conditions EVO has to meet in 3 or 6 months, or else you’ll sell? What is the exit strategy? Looking for your opinion.
Pretty great article abi, I feel like I am in a toxic relationship with EVO. I cannot stop following it even though I do not own a share anymore :D
My comments,
- RNG makes up of ~15% of revenue, there is no moat there.
- They are in a "compliance trap", legal markets stagnate under regulation, while illegal markets keep growing.
- For piracy, the ceo said, "Someone is stealing our products". This is funny and it showed me how uncapable they are. Then later, he says, "caught a little bit off guard". Come on.
- I see contradiction in shareholder return. Share-buyback programme of up to €500 million + 50% dividend, when it comes to capex budget -> (~€140 million). It is acting less like a growth company but like a cash return vehicle.
I have had occasional conversations with various company managers and current/former major shareholders, but I wouldn't say that I'm in any way closely connected to the management. Hence, my public outcries on company strategy... 😅
Thanks a lot for the write-up! I also listened to the concall and went through the report. Some things still remain true which make EVO a decent long-term hold, in my view: (1) EVO's portfolio in live gaming is still world-class / best in the world. In RNG, they are not dominant, but also have a decent foothold and I expect their market share to remain stable (2) The overall casino/online gambling market will grow faster than the general economy; Probably at 3-5% YoY for the next decade or so (3) Putting #1 and #2 together, I expect EVO to maintain or grow share in an overall growing market; Hence, top line should have positive growth in the next decade. I know these are a lot of "ifs", especially as their growth is visibly decelerating. However, current valuation prices them like a no-growth company, whereas I think they will grow. Hence, current prices favor the long-term investor in EVO.
Thanks for the great post. I was wondering what your plan is now. Planning to sell (a part of) your shares? To buy extra shares? Or to hold on to them? In case of the last option, what is the future plan? Is there a list of conditions EVO has to meet in 3 or 6 months, or else you’ll sell? What is the exit strategy? Looking for your opinion.
Summary of my personal plan: https://x.com/gnufs/status/1981380494018101604
Pretty great article abi, I feel like I am in a toxic relationship with EVO. I cannot stop following it even though I do not own a share anymore :D
My comments,
- RNG makes up of ~15% of revenue, there is no moat there.
- They are in a "compliance trap", legal markets stagnate under regulation, while illegal markets keep growing.
- For piracy, the ceo said, "Someone is stealing our products". This is funny and it showed me how uncapable they are. Then later, he says, "caught a little bit off guard". Come on.
- I see contradiction in shareholder return. Share-buyback programme of up to €500 million + 50% dividend, when it comes to capex budget -> (~€140 million). It is acting less like a growth company but like a cash return vehicle.
I agree 100% with everything you wrote and can thus only offer my sympathies :)
Nice graphs! Thanks for the update. Are you in close contact with management or insiders?
I have had occasional conversations with various company managers and current/former major shareholders, but I wouldn't say that I'm in any way closely connected to the management. Hence, my public outcries on company strategy... 😅
Thanks a lot for the write-up! I also listened to the concall and went through the report. Some things still remain true which make EVO a decent long-term hold, in my view: (1) EVO's portfolio in live gaming is still world-class / best in the world. In RNG, they are not dominant, but also have a decent foothold and I expect their market share to remain stable (2) The overall casino/online gambling market will grow faster than the general economy; Probably at 3-5% YoY for the next decade or so (3) Putting #1 and #2 together, I expect EVO to maintain or grow share in an overall growing market; Hence, top line should have positive growth in the next decade. I know these are a lot of "ifs", especially as their growth is visibly decelerating. However, current valuation prices them like a no-growth company, whereas I think they will grow. Hence, current prices favor the long-term investor in EVO.